Poly Market: How a Crowdsourced Prediction Platform Beat Polls, Survived Regulation, and Attracted Billion‑Dollar Investment

Q: How Poly Market Works

- **Bet‑Based Odds:** Users place bets on yes/no questions (e.g., “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?”). The aggregate of all bets creates a market price that reflects the probability of each outcome. - **Not a Poll:** Unlike opinion polls that measure voter intent, Poly Market predicts the *likelihood of a result* (e.g., a 70% chance Trump wins, not a 70% vote share). - **Wide Scope:** The site hosts roughly 10,000 active questions across 15 categories such as politics, culture, sports, and finance. Examples include: - Who will win the Super Bowl? - Will Taylor Swift get married this year? - When will a cease‑fire in Ukraine occur? - How many acres will burn in the LA wildfires? - **Liquidity:** Large sums are wagered on high‑profile markets—$3.6 billion on the 2024 U.S. presidential race, $135 million on the Irish election, and over $400 million on various global events.

Q: Track Record of Accuracy

- **2024 U.S. Presidential Election:** While most pollsters called the race a “dead heat,” Poly Market’s odds shifted to 70% in favor of Trump in early October, correctly forecasting the outcome. - **Biden Debate Dropout:** Before President Biden’s poor debate performance, odds for his withdrawal hovered between 10‑30%. As the debate unfolded, the market price spiked, signaling the likely dropout before mainstream media caught up. - **Other Notable Wins:** Users correctly bet on JD Vance as Trump’s running mate (earning $250 k from a $4 k stake) and on an American pope in a papal conclave (earning $100 k on a 250‑to‑1 shot).

Q: User Experience and Community

- **Trader Profiles:** "Domer," a former professional poker player turned full‑time predictor, made nearly $3 million in 2023, treating the market more like investing than gambling. - **Engagement:** Tens of millions view odds daily, while hundreds of thousands actively trade. The platform’s real‑time updates keep users glued to their phones first thing in the morning.

Q: Ethical and Legal Challenges

- **Controversial Markets:** Some questions—such as bets on the acreage burned in the LA wildfires—raised concerns about incentivizing harmful behavior. - **Regulatory Scrutiny:** Poly Market launched in 2020 without U.S. licensing, prompting a CFTC investigation and a $1.4 million settlement. The company was forced to geoblock U.S. users, yet many accessed the platform via VPNs. - **FBI Raid:** In late 2023, agents seized Copelan’s devices during a raid, though he was not arrested. - **Regulatory Turnaround:** The 2024 Biden administration’s more crypto‑friendly stance led to the dropping of investigations. Poly Market later secured a fully licensed trading platform, allowing legal U.S. participation.

60 Minutes

Summary Date: 2025-12-01 07:13:05

•

4 min read

Poly Market: How a Crowdsourced Prediction Platform Beat Polls, Survived Regulation, and Attracted Billion‑Dollar Investment

Introduction

Poly Market is an online prediction market that lets users wager on the outcomes of real‑world events—from elections and sports championships to celebrity milestones and geopolitical developments. Founded five years ago by 21‑year‑old college dropout Shane Copelan, the platform has attracted billions of dollars in wagers and the backing of billionaire investors, positioning itself as a powerful alternative to traditional polling.

How Poly Market Works

Bet‑Based Odds: Users place bets on yes/no questions (e.g., “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?”). The aggregate of all bets creates a market price that reflects the probability of each outcome.
Not a Poll: Unlike opinion polls that measure voter intent, Poly Market predicts the likelihood of a result (e.g., a 70% chance Trump wins, not a 70% vote share).
Wide Scope: The site hosts roughly 10,000 active questions across 15 categories such as politics, culture, sports, and finance. Examples include:
Who will win the Super Bowl?
Will Taylor Swift get married this year?
When will a cease‑fire in Ukraine occur?
How many acres will burn in the LA wildfires?
Liquidity: Large sums are wagered on high‑profile markets—$3.6 billion on the 2024 U.S. presidential race, $135 million on the Irish election, and over $400 million on various global events.

Track Record of Accuracy

2024 U.S. Presidential Election: While most pollsters called the race a “dead heat,” Poly Market’s odds shifted to 70% in favor of Trump in early October, correctly forecasting the outcome.
Biden Debate Dropout: Before President Biden’s poor debate performance, odds for his withdrawal hovered between 10‑30%. As the debate unfolded, the market price spiked, signaling the likely dropout before mainstream media caught up.
Other Notable Wins: Users correctly bet on JD Vance as Trump’s running mate (earning $250 k from a $4 k stake) and on an American pope in a papal conclave (earning $100 k on a 250‑to‑1 shot).

User Experience and Community

Trader Profiles: "Domer," a former professional poker player turned full‑time predictor, made nearly $3 million in 2023, treating the market more like investing than gambling.
Engagement: Tens of millions view odds daily, while hundreds of thousands actively trade. The platform’s real‑time updates keep users glued to their phones first thing in the morning.

Ethical and Legal Challenges

Controversial Markets: Some questions—such as bets on the acreage burned in the LA wildfires—raised concerns about incentivizing harmful behavior.
Regulatory Scrutiny: Poly Market launched in 2020 without U.S. licensing, prompting a CFTC investigation and a $1.4 million settlement. The company was forced to geoblock U.S. users, yet many accessed the platform via VPNs.
FBI Raid: In late 2023, agents seized Copelan’s devices during a raid, though he was not arrested.
Regulatory Turnaround: The 2024 Biden administration’s more crypto‑friendly stance led to the dropping of investigations. Poly Market later secured a fully licensed trading platform, allowing legal U.S. participation.

Funding and Valuation

Strategic Investors: Donald Trump Jr. joined the advisory board, and his 1789 Capital fund invested roughly $10 million.
Institutional Backing: The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange invested $2 billion, integrating Poly Market data into NYSE trading tools.
Current Valuation: Post‑money valuation stands at about $9 billion, making Copelan a paper billionaire despite the platform not yet turning a profit (it offers free predictions and currently charges no fees on trades).

Future Outlook

Growth Goal: Poly Market aims to reach one billion users within the next five years, leveraging its data‑driven edge for both retail participants and professional traders.
Product Roadmap: Plans include expanding market categories, improving ethical oversight, and deepening integration with traditional financial exchanges.

Conclusion

Poly Market demonstrates how crowd‑sourced betting can generate highly accurate forecasts, rivaling or surpassing conventional polls. After navigating regulatory headwinds and attracting heavyweight investment, the platform is poised to scale dramatically, potentially reshaping how individuals and institutions anticipate future events.

Poly Market shows that a well‑designed prediction market can turn collective betting into a remarkably accurate forecasting tool, and with strong investor backing it is set to become a mainstream source of insight for billions of users worldwide.

Full Transcript

Nearly a year before Donald Trump was
elected in 2024, an online prediction
market called Poly Market offered its
users a chance to bet against each other
on who would win the presidency. $3.6
billion was wagered on that one
question. In the final month of the
campaign, most pollsters were saying the
race was too close to call, but that was
conventional wisdom. Poly Market relied
on the wisdom of crowds and correctly
predicted the outcome. It's not just
elections Poly Market helps its
customers bet on. It's all kinds of
questions. Who will win the Super Bowl?
Will Taylor Swift get married this year?
When will there be a ceasefire in
Ukraine? The company was founded by a
precocious college dropout named Shane
Copelan who started building Poly Market
5 years ago when he was just 21.
Prediction markets aren't new, but not
many have earned the backing of
billionaire investors like Poly Market
has. If it all sounds a bit confounding,
it did to us, too. So, we started by
asking Shane Copelan the most basic
question of all. What is Poly Market?
It's a site where you can basically bet
on current events. Some sort of question
about the future, like an election. And
as a result, when a ton of people are
betting, you get the betting odds, which
basically tell you how likely each
outcome is.
>> And how accurate is it?
>> It's the most accurate thing we have as
mankind right now until someone else
creates some sort of uh super crystal
ball.
>> Shane Copelan may be prone to hyperbole,
but he's definitely on to something.
>> The race is a dead heat. In the run-up
to the 2024 presidential election, while
pundits opined and pollsters canvased,
Poly Market posted a simple question for
users to put money on. Who will be the
presidential election winner in 2024?
Donald Trump started pulling away in
early October.
>> I think one thing that's important to
understand about polymer market is it is
not a poll.
>> That's not the function of polyarket.
>> Correct. Polyarket is trying to predict
the outcome. The percentage of people
who are going to vote for a candidate is
not the same as who's likely to win. And
you would look at Polymer and it would
say 7030 for Trump. And people are like,
"No way. It's going to be 7030." But he
could win by one point, but he's 70%
likely to win.
>> Which is a different question the
pollsters are asking.
>> Exactly. But it's the question people
actually want to know.
>> By the way, we brought off
>> Poly Market posted another question
months before President Biden's
disastrous debate. Biden drops out a
presidential race early on the odds
hovered between 10 and 30%.
>> The market was pricing it that it was
unlikely but that it was possible and
ultimately during the debate the price
started skyrocketing.
>> You could watch it during the debate.
>> Exactly. And everyone was talking about
it
>> because by that point odds were on
market he's going to drop out.
>> Yes. the idea that this was able to go
and surface this at a time when a lot of
the mainstream media and like no knock
to mainstream media but a lot of people
were trying to say hey he's going to
stay in. So the fact that Poly Market
was able to be the signal through the
noise there was our first step on the
scene of mainstream politics.
>> This is the main page for Poly Market.
>> At first glance the site is a lot to
take in. There are 15 categories to
choose from like politics, culture,
sports and finance. Within each there
are a lot of boxes with simple questions
about an upcoming event.
>> Fed decision, Bolivia presidential
election,
>> Russian Ukraine ceasefire in 2025. How
many questions are there at any one
time?
>> It usually fluctuates around 10,000. But
a lot of them
>> but a lot of them have multiple outcomes
or multiple variations.
>> Every question has a yes or no answer.
To wager, you click on one of them.
>> You make money if you're right. You lose
money if you're wrong. And as a result,
it creates this information that's
really useful for people.
>> The percentages next to the questions
are the odds determined by all the other
bets that have already been made. As
more people wager and news breaks, the
odds change.
>> How do you select the questions?
>> Look, if something is being discussed in
the news, if something is of importance,
whether it's geopolitically, you know,
macroeconomically,
culturally, we want to have a poly
market for it. So you can go through and
>> there are questions or markets to bet on
just about everything. Not just Taylor
Swift's marriage, but when will she get
pregnant? How many tweets will Elon Musk
send in a week?
>> This is predictions on who will be the
top Spotify artist in 2025.
>> Yeah, and the market's very confident it
will be Bad Bunny.
>> Some markets are arguably in bad taste.
Wagers on conspiracies, even wars.
Elections everywhere, however, are one
of the platform's biggest draws. Here
you go to global elections and you've
got the Irish election is just
>> there's $135 million being bet on the
Irish election. When we met with Copelan
last month, more than $3.6 million had
been wagered on whether or not
Venezuela's President Nicholas Maduro
would be out of power by the end of the
year. Poly market users didn't think so.
They gave it only a 23% chance. And if
you buy no on that and you're buying it
at 78 cents
>> and at the end of the year he's still in
power.
>> Yeah. You get a dollar per share.
>> So you've made a profit of
>> 22 cents per share.
>> I can see why this would be I mean I
don't want to use the term addictive but
it would be compelling. I mean maybe it
is addictive. I don't know. But it's
certainly compelling.
>> This is how I see it. If you are into
geopolitics, this creates an incentive
for you to dig in to what's going on in
Venezuela and try and get an edge.
>> You grew up the west side up town.
>> Shing Copelan is a native New Yorker. He
dropped out of NYU his freshman year and
when COVID hit, found himself looking
for simple answers to complex questions.
>> New York City was shut down and it's
like when is this going to end? When's
the vaccine going to be ready? When is
shelter in place going to be over? And
prediction markets can take all these
disparit opinions that people are
pontificating about or that they have
really good reason to believe and
distill it down into one probability.
>> But if nobody knows for sure,
>> yeah, well, if people knew for sure, it
would be 100%. But ultimately, it's
going to get you something that's better
than whatever you're seeing on the
internet where it's just a complete
free-for-all of of open outcry.
>> But predictive markets do rely on
someone having some inside information.
M yeah I think that people going and
having an edge to the market is a good
thing. Obviously you need to curate them
and you need to be really clear and
stringent on where the line is drawn and
like sort of ethics and we spend a lot
of time on that but it's sort of an
inevitability that this will happen and
there's a lot of benefits from it and
you know people will adapt. The site
still has critics. Some worry certain
questions could lead people to commit
crimes to win a big enough bet. Poly
Market was criticized for some of their
markets about the LA wildfires earlier
this year.
>> There was a polyarket bet about how many
acres would burn in the LA wildfires.
Some have labeled it like arson markets.
Someone could in order to win that try
to burn more acreage.
>> There were a lot of conversations about
it and there was a very select few of
markets that felt that they were the
mostformational
um with like the least sort of uh you
know risk. These are really small
markets and there's tons of markets and
I understand this is really sensitive.
>> It's the big markets that draw bigers
and this is one of Poly Market's
biggest. He's wagered more than $400
million so far online. He goes by the
name Domer.
>> I don't think of myself as a gambler.
Like I mean I'm taking very very
wellarched views on things. I feel like
it's much more akin to investing.
>> Betting is Domer's full-time job. He
said he made nearly $3 million last year
on Poly Market. He used to be a
professional poker player but gave it
up. Prediction markets, he says, are
more exciting.
>> Every day I'm kind of going into battle.
>> You wake up, I can drink coffee and
you're in battle.
>> You are wrong. I look at my phone within
5 seconds of waking up. What have I
missed? My phone is my coffee. What has
happened overnight? Yeah, cuz the news
doesn't sleep.
>> Did you bet on the papal conclave? Yes,
for sure. How I mean a papal conclave is
a hermetically sealed environment.
Information does not get out,
>> right? [clears throat]
>> Nobody was putting money down that there
be an American pope, but you were.
>> Yeah. And his odds were 250 to1. So he
was a super super super long shot.
>> He won $100,000 on the Pope and even
more picking JD Vance to be Donald
Trump's running mate. He started betting
on him 5 months before he was selected
when Poly Market was only giving Vance a
2% chance. What did you see that made
you think, oh, he might pick JD Vance?
>> So that goes back to 2016 when he picked
Mike Pence. And buried in one of the
articles for why he picked Mike Pence is
that Mike Pence had a one- syllable
name. And Trump has a one- syllable
name. And Trump is very into marketing.
And so I was looking at the names and I
was like, who's one syllable? And not
only is Vance one syllable, he's only
two letters off of Pence.
>> So you bet $4,000 and you ended up
winning $250,000.
>> Yes. Yeah.
>> It's a smart play.
>> It is a good bet. Yeah.
>> Shane Copelan made a risky bet when he
built Poly Market in 2020. He did it
fast in just 3 months and didn't seek
regulatory approval as the law required.
His chief competitor Kelshi did. In
2021, the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission launched an investigation
into Poly Market. Copeland cooperated
and ultimately paid a penalty. It was a
$1.4 million fine. And also it was a
settlement
>> and you could not have [clears throat]
customers in the United States.
>> Yeah. We had to go and geoblock trading
in the US and move certain operations
offshore. And it wasn't, hey, you're
banned from trading the US. It's like
until you're licensed.
>> I mean, it was breaking the law.
>> I mean, people say breaking the law.
It's like which law? You know, so if
anything, it's incompatible.
>> It's incompatible with the law.
>> Yeah. With the regulatory matrix that
existed.
>> The regulatory matrix was pretty clear.
US customers couldn't trade on Poly
Market, but plenty continued to. All
they needed was a VPN connection to mask
their computer's location. In 2024, in
the final weeks of the Biden
administration, Copelan got a surprise
visit at home from the FBI. There's a
lot of like yelling and bang down the
door and
>> like knocking this the FBI or like
>> no like a battering ramp.
>> He wasn't arrested but agents seized his
phones and computers. But with a new
administration came a new appreciation
for prediction markets. In July the
government dropped its investigations
and Poly Market was able to buy a fully
licensed legally compliant trading
platform paving the way for their US
customers to bet openly. Three months
ago, Copeland named Donald Trump Jr.,
already an adviser to Calshi to Poly
Markets advisory board. And Trump Jr.'s
1789 capital fund, invested around $10
million in the company.
>> I think there's going to be people
watching who think that you put the
president's son on your advisory board
to get influence to be able to protect
yourself.
>> So, it's definitely not to protect
myself. I mean, look, like they
invested, right? We're in this admin.
And this admin is very pro- innovation
and pro crypto and pro poly market which
is amazing administration.
>> Yeah. And you know I need help
navigating that right. I'm a young
entrepreneur. If I have people who
believe in what I do who understand how
politics works and can help me help
guide me and teach me you know there
there's nothing wrong about that.
[cheering]
>> Last month Poly Market got its biggest
validation yet. The company that owns
the New York Stock Exchange announced it
was investing $2 billion dollar in Poly
Market.
>> You like the floor?
>> Days later, we met Copelan on the
trading floor.
>> What's it like to see your name up there
or to see?
>> I love it. It's um it's cool, man.
>> He told us Poly Market's data will soon
be integrated into the exchange to help
investors and traders get an edge.
>> What valuation now has Poly Market been
given?
>> $9 billion post money.
>> Billion. Did you anticipate that?
>> I mean, I didn't start it to not get
here. You know,
>> Shane Copelan is now a billionaire, at
least on paper. And Poly Market, it
still hasn't made any profit. It gives
away its main product, its predictions,
for free, and doesn't charge fees on
trades, at least not yet.
>> How many people use Poly Market today?
>> I mean, there's tens of millions of
people who are looking at the odds, and
it's mid hundreds of thousands of people
who are trading. But for you the goal is
a billion people.
>> Yeah.
>> So will Poly Market reach a billion
people
>> in 5 years? Yes or no?
>> It's a great question.
>> What are the odds on it?
>> I love it. Uh a billion people is a lot.
There's going to be a lot that we have
to get right. The thing that drives me
is that there are billions of people who
could find value in this. Which means
until those people have Poly Market, are
getting value from Poly Market, job's
not done.

Summary

Poly Market: How a Crowdsourced Prediction Platform Beat Polls, Survived Regulation, and Attracted Billion‑Dollar Investment

Introduction

How Poly Market Works

Track Record of Accuracy

User Experience and Community

Ethical and Legal Challenges

Funding and Valuation

Future Outlook

Conclusion

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